Eastern Michigan

Conference:	MAC
Expected RPI:	116.0
Current RPI:	116
Expected SOS:	151
Current SOS:	151
Current Record:	17-12
Expected Record:	17-12
Current Conf Record:	12-8
Expected Conf Record:	12-8
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	2-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	9-6
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	6-3
Current OOC Record:	5-4
Expected OOC Record:	5-4
Expected OOC RPI:	163
Expected OOC SOS:	297

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
17-12	116.0	100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Eastern Michigan.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Location	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-16	Arkansas St. (291.0)	SB	H	76-59	W	100%
11-18	Howard (339.0)	MEAC	H	76-66	W	100%
11-24	Indiana (125.0)	B10	A	87-67	L	0%
11-26	South Florida (278.0)	Amer	A	47-65	W	100%
11-29	North Florida (218.0)	ASun	A	84-81	L	0%
12-6	Oakland (182.0)	Horz	H	95-89	W	100%
12-16	Long Beach St. (191.0)	BW	A	80-85	W	100%
12-22	Oakland (182.0)	Horz	A	86-81	L	0%
12-27	Syracuse (45.0)	ACC	A	62-47	L	0%
1-2	Ball St. (126.0)	MAC	A	72-62	L	0%
1-6	Bowling Green (193.0)	MAC	H	71-75	L	0%
1-9	Central Michigan (167.0)	MAC	H	79-74	W	100%
1-13	Northern Illinois (241.0)	MAC	A	72-66	L	0%
1-16	Akron (227.0)	MAC	H	63-49	W	100%
1-20	Ohio (204.0)	MAC	H	66-72	L	0%
1-23	Buffalo (25.0)	MAC	A	83-69	L	0%
1-27	Miami OH (159.0)	MAC	A	48-58	W	100%
1-30	Western Michigan (177.0)	MAC	H	57-71	L	0%
2-3	Ball St. (126.0)	MAC	H	58-41	W	100%
2-6	Kent St. (154.0)	MAC	A	67-71	W	100%
2-10	Bowling Green (193.0)	MAC	A	70-63	L	0%
2-13	Miami OH (159.0)	MAC	H	58-57	W	100%
2-17	Central Michigan (167.0)	MAC	A	67-72	W	100%
2-20	Toledo (75.0)	MAC	H	85-79	W	100%
2-24	Northern Illinois (241.0)	MAC	H	82-53	W	100%
2-27	Western Michigan (177.0)	MAC	A	58-74	W	100%
3-2	Toledo (75.0)	MAC	A	69-71	W	100%
3-8	Akron (227.0)	MAC	N	67-58	W	100%
3-9	Toledo (75.0)	MAC	N	64-63	L	0%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Eastern Michigan's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Eastern Michigan's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Eastern Michigan.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Eastern Michigan	MAC	26.41	26.41	61.83	61.83	6.25	6.25
Toledo	MAC	6.12	6.12	70.00	70.00	2.45	2.45
Western Michigan	MAC	4.39	4.39	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Ball St.	MAC	4.34	4.34	58.62	58.62	0.75	0.75
Akron	MAC	4.33	4.33	44.83	44.83	-0.45	-0.45
Central Michigan	MAC	4.33	4.33	57.14	57.14	0.62	0.62
Miami OH	MAC	4.31	4.31	48.28	48.28	-0.15	-0.15
Northern Illinois	MAC	4.31	4.31	35.71	35.71	-1.23	-1.23
Bowling Green	MAC	4.25	4.25	42.86	42.86	-0.61	-0.61
Oakland	Horz	3.61	3.61	58.06	58.06	0.58	0.58
Buffalo	MAC	2.78	2.78	75.00	75.00	1.39	1.39
Kent St.	MAC	2.73	2.73	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Ohio	MAC	2.66	2.66	41.38	41.38	-0.46	-0.46
Syracuse	ACC	1.88	1.88	59.38	59.38	0.35	0.35
South Florida	Amer	1.81	1.81	32.26	32.26	-0.64	-0.64
Howard	MEAC	1.81	1.81	26.67	26.67	-0.84	-0.84
Indiana	B10	1.81	1.81	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Arkansas St.	SB	1.81	1.81	31.03	31.03	-0.69	-0.69
North Florida	ASun	1.78	1.78	34.48	34.48	-0.55	-0.55
Long Beach St.	BW	1.72	1.72	43.33	43.33	-0.23	-0.23
Cleveland St.	Horz	0.40	0.40	32.35	32.35	-0.14	-0.14
Wright St.	Horz	0.26	0.26	71.88	71.88	0.12	0.12
Detroit	Horz	0.24	0.24	20.00	20.00	-0.14	-0.14
Green Bay	Horz	0.22	0.22	33.33	33.33	-0.07	-0.07
Milwaukee	Horz	0.22	0.22	48.39	48.39	-0.01	-0.01
IUPUI	Horz	0.21	0.21	32.14	32.14	-0.08	-0.08
Appalachian St.	SB	0.20	0.20	41.94	41.94	-0.03	-0.03
Jackson St.	SWAC	0.19	0.19	33.33	33.33	-0.06	-0.06
Fort Wayne	Sum	0.19	0.19	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Florida A&M	MEAC	0.17	0.17	24.24	24.24	-0.09	-0.09
Chicago St.	WAC	0.17	0.17	3.33	3.33	-0.16	-0.16
Michigan St.	B10	0.16	0.16	87.88	87.88	0.12	0.12
Penn	Ivy	0.16	0.16	74.19	74.19	0.08	0.08
Marshall	CUSA	0.16	0.16	69.70	69.70	0.06	0.06
Illinois Chicago	Horz	0.16	0.16	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Youngstown St.	Horz	0.16	0.16	20.00	20.00	-0.10	-0.10
Kansas	B12	0.16	0.16	79.41	79.41	0.09	0.09
Texas Southern	SWAC	0.16	0.16	44.12	44.12	-0.02	-0.02
Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	0.14	0.14	64.52	64.52	0.04	0.04
Dayton	A10	0.14	0.14	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
South Carolina	SEC	0.11	0.11	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
USC Upstate	ASun	0.11	0.11	10.71	10.71	-0.09	-0.09
Michigan	B10	0.11	0.11	79.41	79.41	0.07	0.07
Florida Atlantic	CUSA	0.11	0.11	32.14	32.14	-0.04	-0.04
Cal Poly	BW	0.11	0.11	24.14	24.14	-0.06	-0.06
Iowa	B10	0.11	0.11	42.42	42.42	-0.02	-0.02
NJIT	ASun	0.11	0.11	42.86	42.86	-0.02	-0.02
Indiana St.	MVC	0.11	0.11	37.93	37.93	-0.03	-0.03
Missouri	SEC	0.11	0.11	61.29	61.29	0.03	0.03
Norfolk St.	MEAC	0.11	0.11	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Tulsa	Amer	0.11	0.11	61.29	61.29	0.03	0.03
Ohio St.	B10	0.11	0.11	75.00	75.00	0.06	0.06
Notre Dame	ACC	0.11	0.11	57.58	57.58	0.02	0.02
Tulane	Amer	0.11	0.11	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Cornell	Ivy	0.10	0.10	40.74	40.74	-0.02	-0.02
Northern Kentucky	Horz	0.10	0.10	68.97	68.97	0.04	0.04
Abilene Christian	Slnd	0.09	0.09	44.44	44.44	-0.01	-0.01
Evansville	MVC	0.09	0.09	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Louisiana Monroe	SB	0.09	0.09	46.43	46.43	-0.01	-0.01
Southern Utah	BSky	0.09	0.09	36.67	36.67	-0.02	-0.02
Tennessee Tech	OVC	0.09	0.09	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Stetson	ASun	0.08	0.08	28.57	28.57	-0.04	-0.04
Tennessee Martin	OVC	0.08	0.08	27.59	27.59	-0.04	-0.04
Cal St. Fullerton	BW	0.08	0.08	62.07	62.07	0.02	0.02
Hawaii	BW	0.08	0.08	53.57	53.57	0.01	0.01
Maryland	B10	0.08	0.08	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	0.08	0.08	12.50	12.50	-0.06	-0.06
Oregon St.	P12	0.08	0.08	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Valparaiso	MVC	0.08	0.08	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Memphis	Amer	0.08	0.08	61.76	61.76	0.02	0.02
Saint Joseph's	A10	0.08	0.08	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Wake Forest	ACC	0.08	0.08	35.48	35.48	-0.02	-0.02
Cal St. Bakersfield	WAC	0.06	0.06	33.33	33.33	-0.02	-0.02
Campbell	BSth	0.06	0.06	46.43	46.43	-0.00	-0.00
Central Connecticut	NEC	0.06	0.06	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
Coastal Carolina	SB	0.06	0.06	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Drexel	CAA	0.06	0.06	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Georgia Southern	SB	0.06	0.06	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Georgia St.	SB	0.06	0.06	68.75	68.75	0.02	0.02
Idaho	BSky	0.06	0.06	68.97	68.97	0.02	0.02
Iowa St.	B12	0.06	0.06	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Jacksonville	ASun	0.06	0.06	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Kennesaw St.	ASun	0.06	0.06	28.57	28.57	-0.02	-0.02
Lipscomb	ASun	0.06	0.06	68.97	68.97	0.02	0.02
Little Rock	SB	0.06	0.06	20.00	20.00	-0.03	-0.03
Louisiana Lafayette	SB	0.06	0.06	80.65	80.65	0.04	0.04
Manhattan	MAAC	0.06	0.06	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Marquette	BE	0.06	0.06	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Montana St.	BSky	0.06	0.06	36.67	36.67	-0.02	-0.02
Mount St. Mary's	NEC	0.06	0.06	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Old Dominion	CUSA	0.06	0.06	78.12	78.12	0.03	0.03
Saint Louis	A10	0.06	0.06	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Sam Houston St.	Slnd	0.06	0.06	51.72	51.72	0.00	0.00
San Jose St.	MWC	0.06	0.06	10.34	10.34	-0.05	-0.05
SIU Edwardsville	OVC	0.06	0.06	30.00	30.00	-0.02	-0.02
South Dakota	Sum	0.06	0.06	73.33	73.33	0.03	0.03
UMKC	WAC	0.06	0.06	27.59	27.59	-0.03	-0.03
Coppin St.	MEAC	0.06	0.06	15.62	15.62	-0.04	-0.04
FIU	CUSA	0.06	0.06	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Wichita St.	Amer	0.06	0.06	78.12	78.12	0.03	0.03
Austin Peay	OVC	0.06	0.06	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Bucknell	Pat	0.06	0.06	73.53	73.53	0.03	0.03
Cal St. Northridge	BW	0.06	0.06	14.29	14.29	-0.04	-0.04
Chattanooga	SC	0.06	0.06	25.81	25.81	-0.03	-0.03
Davidson	A10	0.06	0.06	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
DePaul	BE	0.06	0.06	35.48	35.48	-0.02	-0.02
Fordham	A10	0.06	0.06	29.03	29.03	-0.02	-0.02
Hartford	AE	0.06	0.06	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
Illinois	B10	0.06	0.06	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
LIU Brooklyn	NEC	0.06	0.06	51.52	51.52	0.00	0.00
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	0.06	0.06	16.67	16.67	-0.04	-0.04
Minnesota	B10	0.06	0.06	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Nebraska	B10	0.06	0.06	68.75	68.75	0.02	0.02
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	0.06	0.06	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
North Carolina Central	MEAC	0.06	0.06	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Oklahoma	B12	0.06	0.06	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
Oregon	P12	0.06	0.06	64.71	64.71	0.02	0.02
Princeton	Ivy	0.06	0.06	42.86	42.86	-0.01	-0.01
Rutgers	B10	0.06	0.06	42.42	42.42	-0.01	-0.01
Stony Brook	AE	0.06	0.06	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
UC Davis	BW	0.06	0.06	66.67	66.67	0.02	0.02
UC Irvine	BW	0.06	0.06	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
UC Riverside	BW	0.06	0.06	24.14	24.14	-0.03	-0.03
UC Santa Barbara	BW	0.06	0.06	70.00	70.00	0.02	0.02
USC	P12	0.06	0.06	67.65	67.65	0.02	0.02
Western Illinois	Sum	0.06	0.06	33.33	33.33	-0.02	-0.02
Clemson	ACC	0.05	0.05	71.88	71.88	0.02	0.02
Iona	MAAC	0.05	0.05	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Miami FL	ACC	0.05	0.05	70.97	70.97	0.02	0.02
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	0.05	0.05	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Morgan St.	MEAC	0.05	0.05	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Duke	ACC	0.05	0.05	78.79	78.79	0.03	0.03
Georgetown	BE	0.05	0.05	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Jacksonville St.	OVC	0.05	0.05	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Louisville	ACC	0.05	0.05	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
East Carolina	Amer	0.05	0.05	33.33	33.33	-0.02	-0.02
Houston	Amer	0.05	0.05	78.79	78.79	0.03	0.03
SMU	Amer	0.05	0.05	51.52	51.52	0.00	0.00
UCF	Amer	0.05	0.05	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Cincinnati	Amer	0.05	0.05	88.24	88.24	0.04	0.04
Connecticut	Amer	0.05	0.05	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
Boston College	ACC	0.05	0.05	55.88	55.88	0.01	0.01
New Orleans	Slnd	0.05	0.05	42.86	42.86	-0.01	-0.01
North Carolina	ACC	0.05	0.05	71.43	71.43	0.02	0.02
Oral Roberts	Sum	0.05	0.05	28.57	28.57	-0.02	-0.02
Pittsburgh	ACC	0.05	0.05	25.00	25.00	-0.03	-0.03
St. Bonaventure	A10	0.05	0.05	78.12	78.12	0.03	0.03
Towson	CAA	0.05	0.05	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Virginia	ACC	0.05	0.05	93.94	93.94	0.05	0.05
Alabama A&M	SWAC	0.03	0.03	9.68	9.68	-0.02	-0.02
Florida	SEC	0.03	0.03	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
LSU	SEC	0.03	0.03	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Mississippi St.	SEC	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Nebraska Omaha	Sum	0.03	0.03	24.14	24.14	-0.01	-0.01
Prairie View A&M	SWAC	0.03	0.03	45.45	45.45	-0.00	-0.00
South Alabama	SB	0.03	0.03	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
Texas St.	SB	0.03	0.03	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
Troy	SB	0.03	0.03	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
UT Arlington	SB	0.03	0.03	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
VCU	A10	0.03	0.03	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Western Kentucky	CUSA	0.03	0.03	69.70	69.70	0.01	0.01
Wofford	SC	0.03	0.03	60.00	60.00	0.01	0.01
American	Pat	0.03	0.03	20.00	20.00	-0.02	-0.02
Arizona	P12	0.03	0.03	79.41	79.41	0.02	0.02
Colorado St.	MWC	0.03	0.03	32.26	32.26	-0.01	-0.01
Delaware St.	MEAC	0.03	0.03	6.67	6.67	-0.02	-0.02
Fresno St.	MWC	0.03	0.03	63.33	63.33	0.01	0.01
George Washington	A10	0.03	0.03	45.45	45.45	-0.00	-0.00
Gonzaga	WCC	0.03	0.03	88.24	88.24	0.02	0.02
Hampton	MEAC	0.03	0.03	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Liberty	BSth	0.03	0.03	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Northwestern	B10	0.03	0.03	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Penn St.	B10	0.03	0.03	61.76	61.76	0.01	0.01
Pepperdine	WCC	0.03	0.03	16.13	16.13	-0.02	-0.02
Purdue	B10	0.03	0.03	82.35	82.35	0.02	0.02
San Francisco	WCC	0.03	0.03	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Savannah St.	MEAC	0.03	0.03	43.33	43.33	-0.00	-0.00
Seton Hall	BE	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
South Carolina St.	MEAC	0.03	0.03	26.67	26.67	-0.01	-0.01
Stanford	P12	0.03	0.03	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
UNC Wilmington	CAA	0.03	0.03	30.00	30.00	-0.01	-0.01
UTEP	CUSA	0.03	0.03	33.33	33.33	-0.01	-0.01
West Virginia	B12	0.03	0.03	70.59	70.59	0.01	0.01
Wisconsin	B10	0.03	0.03	45.45	45.45	-0.00	-0.00
Charlotte	CUSA	0.03	0.03	17.86	17.86	-0.02	-0.02
Elon	CAA	0.03	0.03	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
Northern Arizona	BSky	0.03	0.03	13.33	13.33	-0.02	-0.02
Temple	Amer	0.03	0.03	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Albany	AE	0.03	0.03	67.74	67.74	0.01	0.01
Canisius	MAAC	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Colgate	Pat	0.03	0.03	58.06	58.06	0.00	0.00
Delaware	CAA	0.03	0.03	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Florida St.	ACC	0.03	0.03	64.52	64.52	0.01	0.01
Georgia Tech	ACC	0.03	0.03	40.62	40.62	-0.00	-0.00
Loyola Chicago	MVC	0.03	0.03	84.38	84.38	0.02	0.02
Niagara	MAAC	0.03	0.03	59.38	59.38	0.00	0.00
North Carolina St.	ACC	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Northeastern	CAA	0.03	0.03	68.75	68.75	0.01	0.01
Robert Morris	NEC	0.03	0.03	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
South Dakota St.	Sum	0.03	0.03	80.00	80.00	0.02	0.02
Southeastern Louisiana	Slnd	0.03	0.03	63.33	63.33	0.01	0.01
Texas A&M	SEC	0.03	0.03	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
UAB	CUSA	0.03	0.03	58.06	58.06	0.00	0.00
Virginia Tech	ACC	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Xavier	BE	0.03	0.03	84.85	84.85	0.02	0.02